There's Something About Sarah

This year, the US elections have been a continuous narrative full of surprises, rather than just a rather dull run-off between two greying men, one of whom is slightly less right-wing than the other. And now something very odd is happening.

Sarah Palin stands for all sorts of things that make me shudder. The impression given in her first few days of high-profile politics is unsettling: that she’s a pistol-packin', elk-shootin', yee-hah gun-lover, not to mention a creationist who thinks it's ‘Gaaaaaaaahd's Will’ that good ol' Merkin Boyz are out there in Iraq kickin' some butt. Her interview with ABC News’s Charlie Gibson betrayed a worrying lack of foreign policy experience. Unlike her namesake Michael, she hasn’t exactly been Pole To Pole. She freely admits only ever having visited Canada , Mexico and (briefly) Kuwait, and seems to think that the fact that her neighbours can spit on Russia from their front doors gives them huge insights into Vladimir Putin’s policies. She wasn’t aware that the ‘Bush Doctrine’ of 2002 referred to ‘anticipatory retaliation’ (basically, America’s right to bomb anyone who sort-of-threatens them, like the bloke in the pub who goes up to you and punches you for looking at him in a funny way).

And yet even I have to admit there is something hugely charismatic about her. She is straightforward and plain-talking, and people know what she stands for. And she’ll attract women voters who couldn’t stomach Hillary Clinton. She will appeal to conservative Middle America. With this choice, John McCain has proved himself to be an astute operator (and apparently the two of them had only met once or twice before he made his choice). He has pulled the carpet from under the feet of his opponent Barack Obama, whose charisma and nebulous ‘change’ message looked in danger of sweeping America off its collective feet. Obama seems a decent guy, but I’m becoming more convinced that he’ll lose this election.

And, let’s face it, if you are Vice-President you have a fair chance of having a stab at the top job (John Nance Garner alert aside – the 32^nd VP, he who famously said the office was not worth a ‘bucket of warm piss’). Post-1945, four men have graduated from VP to President – Johnson, Nixon, Ford and George Bush Senior. Not, one hastens to add, that Mrs Palin will be wishing any ill to befall John McCain if he is elected. Although one wonders if any episodes of Commander In Chief have been playing on the Palin household DVD…

And even if Obama wins this time, Palin will still only be 48 years old in 2012 and 52 in 2016… It’s very likely indeed that, love her or hate her, Sarah Palin will become the world’s most high-profile and controversial stateswoman since Margaret Thatcher – and the defining politician of the 2010s.

Now watch me fall flat on my face as they lose… Ah, the joy of predictions.