Pick a Date

Well, we've been here before. X Marks The Box would be foolish to join in any of the speculation about the election date, so we content ourselves with pointing towards the expert views: Mike Smithson at Political Betting has edged away from his earlier certainty about May and is now giving 8th April serious consideration. On the betting markets, William Hill still favour May 6th but are cutting the odds for an early General Election.

All of this speculation, of course, doesn't help the voters or the politicians to focus on the actual issues. The whole thing becomes an enormous game of brinkmanship, with the Prime Minister seeing how late he can leave it while still making it look as if it was his decision all along and not one he was pushed into. John Major famously waited as long as he could in 1997 before finally ending what the BBC called the "phoney war". In 1992, though, he had gone a little earlier, surprising some by calling an April election - and then surprising a good few more by going on to win it.

One thing seems certain - Spring/early Summer elections are here to stay for a while, barring circumstances like those in 1974 which forced an October election, the second in that year. There are all kinds of reasons for April/May/June elections being the favoured choice - not least the need for good weather without vast swathes of the country being on holiday. Dark nights are seen as off-putting to voters, and can smack of desperation. There's also the advantage of combining the poll with those for local councils and the European parliament, which happen in May.

Whatever date Gordon Brown finally chooses - and he may already have chosen it - the campaign has already started. This time, neither party is making a secret of it, already unveiling slogans and making the kind of speeches one expects in the run-up to an election. Can we perhaps expect an announcement sooner rather than later?...